October 24, 2025
Don't get caught by surprise. Learn about the five most reliable technical and on-chain indicators that have historically signaled when a crypto bull market is nearing its peak.
In a bull market, it feels like the price can only go up. Every dip is bought, and every headline is bullish. It’s in this environment of peak euphoria that the most dangerous mistakes are made. Trying to time the exact top of a market cycle is a fool's errand, but ignoring the warning signs is a financial tragedy.
Smart investors don't predict; they prepare. They use a collection of data-driven indicators to gauge the market's temperature. When multiple signals start flashing red, they know it’s time to execute their exit strategy, even if the party seems like it's still going strong.
Here are five of the most powerful and historically reliable indicators that can help you identify when a crypto market is overextended and a top may be near.
What it is: The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It moves on a scale of 0 to 100.
How to Use It: The classic signal for an overheated market is an RSI reading above 70, which indicates an "overbought" condition. For a truly euphoric market top, you will often see the RSI stay above this level for a sustained period. An even more powerful signal is a "bearish divergence," where the price makes a new high, but the RSI makes a lower high, signaling that the momentum behind the rally is fading.
Why it Matters: It’s one of the most widely respected indicators for gauging short- to medium-term momentum exhaustion.
What it is: The 200-day SMA represents the average closing price of an asset over the last 200 days. It is the gold standard for identifying the long-term macro trend.
How to Use It: This indicator provides two key sell signals. The first is a sign of overextension: when the price gets extremely far above its 200-day SMA (e.g., 2-3x higher), it suggests the rally is parabolic and unsustainable. The second is a sign of trend reversal: when the price breaks decisively below the 200-day SMA, it is a strong confirmation that the bull market has likely ended and a bear market has begun.
Why it Matters: It cuts through the daily noise and gives you a clear, objective view of the long-term health of the trend.
What it is: A simple yet uncannily accurate indicator for signaling Bitcoin's major cycle tops. It consists of two moving averages: the 111-day SMA and the 350-day SMA multiplied by two.
How to Use It: The signal is simple: when the shorter-term 111-day SMA (the "fast" line) crosses above the 2x 350-day SMA (the "slow" line), it has historically marked the peak of Bitcoin's bull run within a matter of days.
Why it Matters: While it's specific to Bitcoin, the entire crypto market follows BTC's lead. The Pi Cycle cross is one of the most widely watched on-chain signals for a macro trend change.
What it is: The MVRV Z-Score is an on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin's "Market Value" (its current price) to its "Realized Value" (the average price at which each coin was last moved). It essentially measures how over- or undervalued the market is relative to its historical cost basis.
How to Use It: The Z-Score moves in a predictable channel. When the score enters the upper red zone (typically a value above 7.0), it signals that the market is in a state of extreme euphoria and historical overvaluation, a condition that has coincided with every major cycle top.
Why it Matters: It provides a fundamental, on-chain valuation perspective, moving beyond simple price momentum to assess the market's actual profitability.
What it is: A sentiment gauge that synthesizes data from volatility, market momentum, social media, and more into a single 0-100 score.
How to Use It: As legendary investor Warren Buffett said, "Be fearful when others are greedy." A sustained period of "Extreme Greed" (readings above 85) is a powerful sign that the market is saturated with retail FOMO and is likely nearing a point of exhaustion.
Why it Matters: It is a direct, quantifiable measure of the very emotion—greed—that causes investors to make irrational decisions at market tops.
Tracking these five indicators across different charts and websites can feel like a full-time job. You might see a bearish divergence on the RSI, but the price is still well above the 200-day SMA. How do you weigh one signal against another?
This is precisely the problem the XitCrypto Compass Score is designed to solve.
Our proprietary algorithm analyzes many of these key indicators—including the RSI, the distance from key moving averages, and the Fear & Greed Index—and synthesizes them into a single, easy-to-understand 0-100 score. It automatically does the heavy lifting of weighting and interpreting the data for you.
Furthermore, within the app's Deep Dive feature, you can view the historical charts for specialized indicators like the Pi Cycle Top and MVRV Z-Score, all in one place.
The goal isn't to rely on a single magic indicator, but to see a confluence of evidence. When multiple, independent signals all point to an overextended, euphoric market, it’s a clear and data-driven sign to execute your plan.
Ready to stop guessing and start seeing the signals? Sign up for XitCrypto today and get a clear view of the market.
Download our free, data-driven Exit Strategy PDF to build a disciplined plan for taking profits in this bull market.
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